A lot of watch enthusiasts say watches should be enjoyed, not bought as investments. Fair enough — but I’ve always found that a little ironic. For some people, buying a watch as an investment is part of the enjoyment. At the end of the day, once you buy a watch, what you do with it is your choice.
That said, the luxury watch market has changed a lot. Five or six years ago, if you bought the right Rolex, Audemars Piguet or Patek Philippe, there was a strong chance you had already made money the moment you walked out the door. Today, it is a very different market. The post-pandemic hype has cooled, and many of the most popular steel sports models have come down substantially from their peak prices.
The market does seem to be stabilizing, but it is not the free-money environment it once was. WatchCharts reported that the overall secondary watch market rose slightly in early 2026, with Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet all showing modest gains after a long correction. That is encouraging, but it also shows the market is now much more selective. You cannot just buy any Rolex, AP or Patek and assume it will go up.
If you are looking for a short-term flip, your best chance is still getting lucky at an authorized dealer and buying a desirable steel sports model at retail, such as a Rolex Submariner or Daytona. That is obviously easier said than done. For most people, it is about as realistic as winning the lottery, but it does happen.
Personally, I think vintage Rolex Day-Date models are one of the more interesting investment watches right now, especially with gold prices being so high. Newer Day-Date models are expensive, and Rolex has continued increasing prices, particularly on precious metal models. In 2025, Rolex increased prices on some gold watches by up to 8%, and further 2026 price increases again affected gold and two-tone models.
That makes older Day-Date models interesting. A Rolex Day-Date 18038 on a solid gold bracelet can still often be bought far below the price of a modern equivalent. The Rolex Day-Date 18038 sits at around $13,000 to $30,000 AUD market value depending on condition and configuration in June 2026, while a modern Day-Date 40 reference 228238 sits close to US$50,000.
The appeal is simple: they are versatile, they are made from solid 18ct yellow gold, and they are Rolex. There is brand value, collector value and material value all working together. That does not mean every vintage Day-Date is automatically a bargain, but it gives the watch a stronger foundation than something priced purely on hype.
Gold is also a major part of the conversation. Gold surged to record highs in early 2026, with Australian reporting putting the price above AUD $7,200 per ounce in January, before later trading around the low AUD $6,000s per ounce in late May and early June. When gold moves like that, solid gold watches become more interesting because there is a tangible floor underneath them. At one point, people were scrapping solid gold Rolex watches — even some AP Royal Oaks — and still making money. That tells you something about the underlying value of these pieces.
On the other hand, I would be careful with watches driven mostly by hype. Richard Mille is a good example. For a while, people were making money on them, but much of that value was based on demand, celebrity visibility and status rather than material value. As demand cools, prices can fall quickly. Many models contain little to no precious metal — often high-tech composites, rubber or fabric straps — yet they can sell for extraordinary money. Impressive engineering, yes. But from an investment point of view, I would rather have substance than hype wearing a Velcro strap.
The broader Swiss watch industry is also becoming more polarized. Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult’s 2025 report estimated that the Swiss watch market contracted in value for the second year in a row, while the biggest brands — Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe — continued to gain share. That matters because investment watches are increasingly about buying the right brand, the right model, in the right condition, at the right price. The middle of the market is much riskier.
For me, the best investment watches are not just about hype. They need substance: brand strength, material value, long-term desirability, condition, service history and a price that still makes sense. A watch should be enjoyable, but if you are buying it as an investment, enjoyment alone is not enough. You still need to buy well — otherwise you are not investing, you are just emotionally financing someone else’s profit.